Intended and Unintended Effects of Banning Menthol Cigarettes
利用加拿大各省的禁令数据，研究发现薄荷醇香烟禁令虽减少了薄荷醇香烟消费，但青少年转向非薄荷醇香烟，成年人则转向未受监管的原住民保留地购买，整体吸烟率未受影响。
Bans on menthol cigarettes have been adopted throughout the European Union, proposed by the US Food and Drug Administration, and enacted by legislatures in Massachusetts and California. Yet there is very limited evidence on their effects using real-world policy variation. We study the intended and unintended effects of menthol cigarette bans in Canada, where seven provinces banned them prior to a nationwide ban in 2018. Difference-in-differences models using national survey data return no evidence that provincial menthol cigarette bans affected overall smoking rates for youths or adults. Although menthol cigarette smoking fell for both youths and adults, youths increased nonmenthol cigarette smoking, and adults shifted cigarette purchases to unregulated First Nations reserves. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for substitution and evasion responses in the design of stricter tobacco regulations.