Trade and the Global Recession
构建多国动态一般均衡模型，研究2008-2009年全球衰退期间世界制造业贸易下降29%的原因，发现耐用消费品投资效率下降导致的最终支出从可贸易部门转移是主因。
We develop a dynamic multicountry general equilibrium model to investigate forces acting on the global economy during the Great Recession and ensuing recovery. Our multisector framework accounts completely for countries' trade, investment, production, and GDPs in terms of different sets of shocks. Applying the model to 21 countries, we investigate the 29 percent drop in world trade in manufactures during the period 2008–2009. A shift in final spending away from tradable sectors, largely caused by declines in durables investment efficiency, accounts for most of the collapse in trade relative to GDP. Shocks to trade frictions, productivity, and demand play minor roles.