Now or Later? Trading Wind Power Closer to Real-time: How Poorly Designed Subsidies Can Lead to Higher Balancing Costs
利用丹麦数据发现，风电短缺会增加短期市场交易概率，但盈余反而降低交易概率，这源于补贴政策设计不当，导致不必要的平衡成本上升。
Simulation studies have pointed to the advantages of trading closer to real-time with large amounts of wind power. Using Danish data, I show that, as expected, shortfalls increase the probability of trade on the short-term market, Elbas. But in the period studied between 2010 and 2012 surpluses are shown to decrease the probability of trade. This unexpected result is likely explained by wind power policies that discourage trading on Elbas and lead to unnecessarily high balancing costs. I use a rolling-windows regression to support this claim.