Demographics, GDP, and Future Stock Returns: The Implications of Some Basic Principles
基于经济增长和资产定价的基本理论，分析人口结构变化如何影响未来经济增长和股票回报，结论是婴儿潮一代老龄化虽不利于人均经济增长，但不太可能导致未来股票回报下降。
The aging of the baby boom generation has focused investor attention on the issue of how changing demographics will affect the economy generally and the stock market specifically. One commonly expressed view is that stock returns will be depressed as baby boomers liquidate their portfolios to fund retirement. In this article, Cornell returns to basic theories of economic growth and asset pricing to disentangle the various ways in which demographics can affect future economic growth and future stock returns. He concludes that whereas the aging of the baby boom generation is indeed bad news for future economic growth, in particular, on a per capita basis, it is unlikely to lead to lower future stock returns. <b>TOPICS:</b>Exchanges/markets/clearinghouses, in markets, statistical methods