European Banking Distress and EMU: Institutional and Macroeconomic Risks
利用多变量Probit模型，基于宏观经济变量和制度特征（如银行监管、投资限制等）预测欧洲货币联盟国家银行业困境概率较低，对研究欧洲金融稳定的学者有参考价值。
Financial stability in Europe has received renewed attention with the advent of EMU. This paper examines whether EU country banking systems are particularly vulnerable to systemic risk. Our approach is to explore episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of countries, highlighting the experience of the EU. We estimate multivariate probit models linking the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics such as aspects of bank supervision and regulation, restrictions on bank portfolios, and development of the banking system. Given these characteristics, the model predicts a low probability of banking sector distress in EMU countries.