The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates
分析股票长期盈利增长的历史数据，发现高增长公司很少，长期增长无持续性，预测能力低，IBES预测过于乐观，估值比率预测能力有限。
ABSTRACT Expectations about long‐term earnings growth are crucial to valuation models and cost of capital estimates. We analyze historical long‐term growth rates across a broad cross section of stocks using several indicators of operating performance. We test for persistence and predictability in growth. While some firms have grown at high rates historically, they are relatively rare instances. There is no persistence in long‐term earnings growth beyond chance, and there is low predictability even with a wide variety of predictor variables. Specifically, IBES growth forecasts are overly optimistic and add little predictive power. Valuation ratios also have limited ability to predict future growth.