Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation
利用覆盖所有消费的分类通胀数据,研究分类通胀与总体通胀的持续性差异、持续性在消费部门间的分布以及持续性是否发生变化。
Abstract This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the distribution of persistence across consumption sectors; and (iii) whether persistence has changed. Assuming mean inflation to be unchanged, disaggregate persistence inflation is consistently below aggregate persistence. Taking into account an early 1990s shift in mean inflation identified by break tests yields much lower estimates of both aggregate and disaggregate persistence for 1984–2002. But with the mean break, average disaggregate persistence is actually as great as aggregate inflation persistence. A factor model provides a natural framework for interpreting the relationship between aggregate and disaggregate persistence. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.