Age and Great Invention
研究发现，与一个世纪前相比，如今重大知识成就的创造者年龄更大，诺贝尔奖得主和伟大发明家在年轻时尤其缺乏产出，且中年后生产率并未提升，这导致总创新产出下降。
Great achievements in knowledge are produced by older innovators today than they were a century ago. Nobel Prize winners and great inventors have become especially unproductive at younger ages. Meanwhile, the early life cycle decline is not offset by increased productivity beyond middle age. The early life cycle dynamics are closely related to age when the PhD was received, and I discuss a theory where knowledge accumulation across generations leads innovators to seek more education over time. More generally, the narrowing innovative life cycle reduces, other things equal, aggregate creative output. This productivity drop is particularly acute if innovators' raw ability is greatest when young. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.