Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero
针对2008年后利率卡在零下限的问题，利用预测者调查数据绕过统计难题，发现美联储对通胀的反应减弱、对失业的反应增强，表明其稳定通胀的承诺在专业预测者眼中有所弱化。
Did the Federal Reserve's response to economic fundamentals change with the onset of the Global Financial Crisis? Estimation of a monetary policy rule to answer this question faces a censoring problem since the interest rate target has been set at the zero lower bound since late 2008. Surveys by forecasters allow us to sidestep the problem and to use conventional regressions and break tests. We find that, in the opinion of forecasters, the Fed's inflation response has decreased and the unemployment response has increased, which suggests that the Federal Reserve's commitment to stable inflation has become weaker in the eyes of the professional forecasters.