The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation
依据卢卡斯批判，考察1979年10月后菲利普斯曲线和利率期限结构的变化，发现政策变化对菲利普斯曲线直接影响不大（至少到1982年），但对期限结构有显著影响。
This paper examines, in light of the Lucas Critique, the behavior of the Phillips curve and of the term structure of interest rates after October 1979. It starts with an informal account of the policy change and then discusses how we might expect these two relations to shift after such a change. It finds little evidence of a direct effect of the policy change on the Phillips curve, at least until 1982. It finds substantial evidence of a direct effect on term structure.