Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy
利用体制转换模型，发现衰退期政府支出乘数远大于扩张期，且军事支出乘数最大；控制财政冲击的可预测成分会进一步放大衰退期乘数。
A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently relative to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of fiscal shocks tends to increase the size of the multipliers in recessions.