Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity
结合三种理论（递增报酬、随机增长、区位基础），利用日本从石器时代到现代的区域人口分布数据，以及二战盟军轰炸作为冲击，发现区位基础决定空间模式，递增报酬影响分化程度，城市规模对短期冲击具有韧性。
We consider the distribution of economic activity within a country in light of three leading theories—increasing returns, random growth, and locational fundamentals. To do so, we examine the distribution of regional population in Japan from the Stone Age to the modern era. We also consider the Allied bombing of Japanese cities in WWII as a shock to relative city sizes. Our results support a hybrid theory in which locational fundamentals establish the spatial pattern of relative regional densities, but increasing returns help to determine the degree of spatial differentiation. Long-run city size is robust even to large temporary shocks.