A Practical Guide to Updating Beliefs From Contradictory Evidence
提出一个信念形成模型和若干更新公理，通过不可能性定理表明没有明显的最佳答案，同时用表示定理划定了可能性的边界，对处理矛盾证据的决策者具有实用指导意义。
We often make high stakes choices based on complex information that we have no way to verify. Careful Bayesian reasoning—assessing every reason why a claim could be false or misleading—is not feasible, so we necessarily act on faith: we trust certain sources and treat claims as if they were direct observations of payoff relevant events. This creates a challenge when trusted sources conflict: Practically speaking, is there a principled way to update beliefs in response to contradictory claims? I propose a model of belief formation along with several updating axioms. An impossibility theorem shows there is no obvious best answer, while a representation theorem delineates the boundary of what is possible.