Global Economic Growth and Expected Returns Around the World: The End-of-the-Year Effect
研究发现，全球经济增长在年末时能显著预测全球、区域及单个国家的股票、外汇和大宗商品等国际资产的未来收益，而其他时点的增长则无此预测能力。低年末增长预示未来一年更高收益及经济周期恶化，投资者因此提高要求回报。
Global economic growth at the end of the year strongly predicts returns from a wide spectrum of international assets, such as global, regional, and individual-country stocks, FX, and commodities. Global economic growth at other times of the year does not predict international returns. Low growth in the global economy at the end of the year predicts higher returns over the following year. It also predicts the global business cycle. When global economic growth at the end of the year is low, investors expect a worsening of the global business cycle and increase their required returns. This paper was accepted by Lauren Cohen, finance.