The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
研究了美国2009年衰退后产出增长缓慢的原因,发现主要源于全要素生产率增长缓慢和劳动参与率下降,且这些因素在衰退前就已存在。
U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, even though the unemployment rate has essentially returned to a pre-crisis, normal level. We use a growthaccounting decomposition to explore explanations for the output shortfall, giving full treatment to cyclical effects that, given the depth of the recession, should have implied unusually fast growth. We find that the growth shortfall has almost entirely reflected two factors: the slow growth of total factor productivity, and the decline in labor force participation. Both factors reflect powerful adverse forces that are largely unrelated to the financial crisis and recession-and that were in play before the recession.