How excluding some benefits from value assessment of new drugs impacts innovation
研究了医保支付方在评估新药价值时排除某些期权相关收益，会降低药品的报销机会，进而促使药企避开高风险研发、转向更安全的投资，部分解释了高风险新分子实体数量下降的原因。
Payers often assess the benefits of new drugs relative to costs for reimbursement purposes, but they frequently exclude some drugs' option-related benefits, reducing their reimbursement chances, and making them less attractive R&D investments. We develop and test a real options model of R&D investment that shows that excluding option-related benefits heightens drug developers' incentives to avoid high-risk (volatile) R&D investments and instead encourages them to focus on "safer" (positively skewed) investments. Our model and empirical results could partly explain the decline in the number of risky new molecular entities.