State-Run Banks, Money Growth, and the Real Economy
研究发现，国有银行的贷款与前期货币增长相关，而私营银行则不然；银行体系国有化程度越高，货币增长对信贷和投资的预测力越强。证据指向一种指令式准货币政策渠道：货币增长变化通过政治压力影响国有银行的放贷约束。
Within countries, individual state-run banks’ lending correlates with prior money growth; similar private-sector banks’ lending does not. Aggregate credit and investment growth correlate with prior money growth more where banking systems are more state-run. Size and liquidity differences between state-run and private-sector banks do not drive these results; further tests discount broad classes of alternative explanations. Tests exploiting heterogeneity in political pressure on state-run banks associated with privatizations and elections suggest a command-and-control pseudo-monetary policy channel: changes in money growth, perhaps reflecting political pressure on the central bank, change banks’ lending constraints; political pressure actually changes state-run banks’ lending. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.