Using Counter-Explanation to Limit Analysts' Forecast Optimism
通过两个实验发现，分析师在完成生成少量反向解释（解释管理者计划为何可能失败）的简单任务后，预测乐观程度降低；但生成大量反向解释的困难任务则无效。
Prior research demonstrates that forecast optimism is, in part, a consequence of analysts' cognitive reactions to the scenarios managers use to communicate future plans. In two experiments, we examine whether counter-explanation (explaining why managers' plans could fail) reduces scenario-induced optimism. We find that when compared to analysts not asked to generate counter-explanations, analysts who complete the relatively easy task of generating few counter-explanations make less optimistic forecasts, but analysts who complete the relatively difficult task of generating many counter-explanations do not. Results demonstrate the usefulness of a cognitive, theory-based mechanism for reducing forecast optimism and suggest a boundary condition for the use of that mechanism.