Technological Change, Depletion, and the U.S. Petroleum Industry
首次实证分析技术变革如何影响美国石油和天然气新增储量的平均发现成本，发现技术变革显著缓解了天然气成本上升，但对原油影响较小。
A common claim in the nonrenewable resource literature is that improvements in technology may largely offset the effects of increasing scarcity over time. This study provides perhaps the first empirical evidence on this issue by analyzing the determinants of the average finding cost for additional petroleum reserves in the United States over the 19671990 period. Using a new index of the level of technology, our analysis suggests that technological change played a major role in allaying what would otherwise have been a sharp rise in the average cost of finding additional reserves of natural gas. The impact of technological change on finding costs for U.S. crude oil reserves has been more modest. To place our work in context, we note that in recent years there has been renewed interest in the causes and consequences of technological change. At the macroeconomic level, a huge literature modeling the impact of technological innovation on economic growth and living standards has emerged [see, e.g., Paul Romer (1990) and Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman (1991)]. At the micro level, increasingly sophisticated methods are being used to assess the links between technological change, productivity, and average or marginal costs at the sectoral level [see, e.g., Samuel Kortum and Saul Lach (1995)]. The potential effects of technological change in alleviating the increasing scarcity of nonrenewable resources are widely discussed in the resource and environmental economics literature. The simplest variant of the Harold Hotelling (1931) model predicts that nonrenewable resource prices should rise at a rate equal to the real rate of interest. It is well known, however, that