Credit-Induced Boom and Bust
利用2004年美国联邦对国民银行豁免地方反掠夺性贷款法的政策，研究发现信贷供给增加导致贷款、房价和就业在繁荣期上升，但在萧条期违约率激增。
This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy. First, the preemption regulation resulted in an 11% increase in annual lending in the 2004–2006 period, which is associated with a 3.3% rise in annual house price growth rate and a 2.2% expansion of employment in nontradable sectors. This was followed by a sharp decline in subsequent years. Furthermore, we show that the increase in the supply of credit reduced delinquencies during boom years, but increased them in bust years. Received June 7, 2015; editorial decision December 22, 2016 by Editor Robin Greenwood.