Why Do Option Prices Predict Stock Returns? The Role of Price Pressure in the Stock Market
研究发现期权价格预测股票收益主要源于股票市场价格压力，而非期权交易信息，这为区分价格压力与新闻冲击提供了锚定。
Stock and options markets can disagree about a stock’s value because of informed trading in options and/or price pressure in the stock. The predictability of stock returns based on this cross-market discrepancy in values is especially strong when accompanied by stock price pressure, and it does not depend on trading in options. We argue that option-implied prices provide an anchor for fundamental stock values that helps to distinguish stock price movements resulting from pressure versus news. Overall, our results are consistent with stock price pressure being the primary driver of the option price-based stock return predictability. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.