Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?
研究通胀稳定化对股市的影响,发现年通胀率高于40%的国家在稳定化后股市平均实际上涨24%,而低于40%时市场反应为零。
ABSTRACT The stock market appreciates by an average of 24 percent in real dollar terms when countries attempt to stabilize annual inflation rates that are greater than 40 percent. In contrast, the average market response is 0 when the prestabilization rate of inflation is less than 40 percent. These results suggest that the potential long‐run benefits of stabilization may dominate shortrun costs at high levels of inflation, but at low to moderate levels of inflation, benefits may be offset by costs in a present value sense. Stock market responses also help predict the change in inflation and output in the year following all 81 stabilization efforts.