The Real Effects of Uncertainty on Merger Activity
研究发现市场波动增加会减少后续并购活动，但仅针对有过渡期的公开目标公司，且波动越大、交易时间越长、目标越大时影响越强。
Firm values can substantially change between the time deal terms are set and the actual deal closing, risking renegotiation, or termination. We find increases in market volatility decrease subsequent deal activity, but only for public targets subject to an interim period. The effect is strongest when volatility is highest, for deals taking longer to close, and for larger targets. Merging parties attempt to shorten the interim window as risk increases. Firm- and industry-level uncertainty measures reveal similar findings, ruling out an unobserved macro variable. We conclude interim uncertainty contributes to understanding the timing and intensity of public firms’ merger activity. Received February 12, 2015; accepted May 23, 2016 by Editor David Denis.