Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models
研究了通胀预期调查数据是否有助于估计宏观经济模型，发现适应性学习在同时拟合宏观数据和调查数据方面优于理性预期。
Does survey data contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? We address this question by using survey data of inflation expectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters ( ) and compare its performance under rational expectations and adaptive learning. The survey information serves as an additional moment restriction and helps us to determine the learning agents' forecasting model for inflation. Adaptive learning fares similarly to rational expectations in fitting macro data, but clearly outperforms rational expectations in fitting macro and survey data simultaneously. In other words, survey data contain additional information that is not present in the macro data alone.