Anticipating the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis: Who Knew What and When Did They Know It?
研究了机构投资者、金融分析师和金融企业内部人三类市场参与者对2007-2008年金融危机的预见能力，发现前两类人通过偏好非金融股表现出一定意识，而企业内部人完全 unaware，支持危机源于判断失误而非激励扭曲的观点。
Abstract We examine the ability of three groups of informed market participants to anticipate the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Institutional investors and financial analysts exhibit some awareness of the impending crisis in their preference for nonfinancial stocks over financial stocks. In contrast, corporate insiders of financial firms appear to be completely unaware of the timing and extent of the financial crisis. Net purchases by managers of financial firms exceed those by managers of nonfinancial firms over the entire 2006–2008 period. Our results add considerable weight to the argument that the financial crisis was more a case of flawed judgment than flawed incentives.