Under the Thumb of History? Political Institutions and the Scope for Action*
讨论历史与政治制度关系的两种主流观点，指出虽有证据表明历史有长期影响，但数据不足以区分两种观点，因此建议假设政策决策确实有影响并努力改进政策制定。
This article discusses the two leading views of history and political institutions. For some scholars, institutions are mainly products of historical logic, whereas for others, accidents, leaders, and decisions have a significant impact. We argue that although there is clear evidence that history matters and has long-term effects, there are not enough data to help us distinguish between the two views. Faced with this uncertainty, what is a social scientist to do? We argue that given the possibility that policy decisions indeed make a difference, it makes sense to assume they do and to try to improve policy making.