The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market
构建并估计了一个全球石油市场的动态结构模型，量化页岩革命的影响。研究发现页岩生产成本下降使油价短期降低24%，长期降低48%，并降低了油价波动性。
Abstract We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a decrease in shale production costs and find that the resultant increase in shale production lowers oil prices by 24% in the short run and 48% once the shale oil transition is complete. Current oil price volatility is lowered by 8% to 23% depending on the horizon. We also find that OPEC core acts to keep its market share constant in the face of the dramatic increase in shale production.