Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
用贝叶斯方法估计模型，发现美国二战后通胀的起落源于央行信念与经济冲击的复杂互动，1970年代冲击使央行误判通胀与失业的权衡，导致通胀飙升。
We use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate a model that allows temporary gaps between a true expectational Phillips curve and the monetary authority's approximating nonexpectational Phillips curve.A dynamic programming problem implies that the monetary authority's inflation target evolves as its estimated Phillips curve moves.Our estimates attribute the rise and fall of post WWII inflation in the US to an intricate interaction between the monetary authority's beliefs and economic shocks.Shocks in the 1970s altered the monetary authority's estimates and made it misperceive the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.That caused a sharp rise in inflation in the 1970s.Our estimates say that policymakers updated their beliefs continuously.By the 1980s,