Predictable Financial Crises
利用战后全球金融危机历史数据，发现信贷和资产价格快速增长的三年后，有40%概率在接下来三年内发生金融危机，而正常时期概率仅约7%，挑战了危机不可预测的观点。
ABSTRACT Using historical data on postwar financial crises around the world, we show that the combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth is elevated. Our evidence challenges the view that financial crises are unpredictable “bolts from the sky” and supports the Kindleberger‐Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom‐bust credit cycles. This predictability favors policies that lean against incipient credit‐market booms.