Some evidence on the continuity of the growth process among the G7 countries
运用最新时间序列结构突变技术，分析七国集团过去120年人均实际GDP数据，发现多次断点，但长期稳态增长率呈上升趋势。
The stability of the growth process, whether growth rates are rising, falling, or constant, is one of the central questions of economic growth theory. We use recently developed techniques for identifying structural change in economic time series, and find evidence of multiple breaks in per capita real GDP of the G7 countries over the past 120 years. Once determined, these breaks are used to delineate time periods. Although there is some evidence of individual periods of slowdowns, the overall tendency appears to be one of increasing steady state growth over the long run.