The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labour Productivity
记录了美国战后宏观经济中劳动生产率顺周期性消失和就业相对波动性上升的现象,并提出因匹配质量信息改善导致招聘摩擦减少、人员流动下降的解释,通过模型验证了其与周期动态变化的吻合。
Abstract We document two changes in post-war US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour productivity vanished, and the relative volatility of employment rose. We propose an explanation for these changes that is based on reduced hiring frictions due to improvements in information about the quality of job matches and the resulting decline in turnover. We develop a simple model with hiring frictions and variable effort to illustrate the mechanisms underlying our explanation. We show that our model qualitatively and quantitatively matches the observed changes in business cycle dynamics.