Estimating Welfare Effects Consistent with Forward-Looking Behavior. Part II: Empirical Results
利用1979年青年队列的全国纵向调查数据，通过近似决策规则估计福利参与、生育、婚姻、工作和教育等行为的福利效应，为政策评估提供实证依据。
In this paper, we provide estimates of welfare benefit effects on a set of behaviors that includes welfare participation, fertility, marriage, work and schooling using approximations to the decision rules that would be derived from an explicit dynamic optimization problem. We use the stylized model and associated simulations from Part I as a guide in specifying the approximate decision rules that we estimate here. The estimates are based on data from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience (NLSY79).