Tax Projections and the Budget: Lessons from the 1980's
通过分析1982-93年美国OMB的税收预测误差，检验了1980年代边际税率提高导致收入增长低于预期的假设，发现消费税和公司所得税的预测偏差部分源于对行为反应的低估。
Some economists have argued that the disincentive effects of marginal tax rate increases in the 1980s caused revenue to rise by less than had been anticipated. To evaluate the hypothesis, this paper considers OMB revenue forecasts and forecast errors for the period 1982-93. If the revenue gains from tax increases, and the revenue losses from tax cuts, were overstated because of inadequate allowance for behavioral responses, then the forecast errors should be negatively related to the initial revenue estimates of the impact of policy changes. For excise taxes and corporate income taxes, the results suggest that the systematic overprediction of revenues during the period can be explained in part by an underestimate of behavioral responses to taxation.