The Rate of Return on Real Estate: Long-Run Micro-Level Evidence
通过收集牛津大学四所学院1901-1983年的房地产组合数据，发现长期来看房地产（尤其是住宅）投资回报低于以往认知，年化实际总回报在2.3%至4.5%之间。
Abstract Real estate—housing in particular—is a less profitable investment in the long run than previously thought. We hand-collect property-level financial data for the institutional real estate portfolios of four large Oxbridge colleges over the period 1901–1983. Gross income yields initially fluctuate around 5%, but then trend downward (upward) for agricultural and residential (commercial) real estate. Long-term real income growth rates are close to zero for all property types. Our findings imply annualized real total returns, net of costs, ranging from approximately 2.3% for residential to 4.5% for agricultural real estate.