Labor‐Technology Substitution: Implications for Asset Pricing
研究企业用自动化替代常规任务劳动的机会如何影响资产定价，发现拥有更多常规任务劳动的企业在经济下行时更多投资机器并减少此类劳动，且预期股票回报更低。
ABSTRACT This paper studies the asset pricing implications of a firm's opportunities to replace routine‐task labor with automation. I develop a model in which firms optimally undertake such replacement when their productivity is low. Hence, firms with routine‐task labor maintain a replacement option that hedges their value against unfavorable macroeconomic shocks and lowers their expected returns. Using establishment‐level occupational data, I construct a measure of firms' share of routine‐task labor. Compared to their industry peers, firms with a higher share of routine‐task labor (i) invest more in machines and reduce more routine‐task labor during economic downturns, and (ii) have lower expected stock returns.