Monetarist Rules in the Light of Recent Experience
认为近期经验并非货币主义实验,但强化了对货币供给恒定增长规则的质疑,提出以货币基础为对象的调整规则,根据名义GNP偏离目标路径调整基础增长率,兼具主动性和非自由裁量性。
Recent experience does not include a "monetarist experiment, " as some have argued, but may slightly reinforce preexisting reasons for doubting that the best way of formulating monetarist policy prescriptions is in the form of a constant growth rule for the money stock.A more desirable rule would pertain to the monetary base, which is much more directly under Fed control. While a constant base growth rule might provide good macroeconomic performance, better results should be obtainable from a rule that at regular intervals adjusts the base growth rate upward or downward depending on whether nominal GNP is below or above a target path that specifies constant, non-inflationary growth for that variable. This type of rule is activist, to an extent, but is non-discretionary.The implied absence of policy-making flexibility is desirable for reasons explained in the literature on dynamic inconsistency.