Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes
利用英国财政政策冲击的新叙事指标,研究发现有抵押贷款的家庭对税收变化的消费反应显著,而无抵押贷款的家庭则无显著调整,为税收变化的宏观经济效应提供了新解释。
Using a new narrative measure of fiscal policy shocks for the U.K., we show that households with mortgage debt exhibit large and significant consumption responses to tax changes. Homeowners without a mortgage, in contrast, do not adjust their expenditure, with responses not statistically different from zero at all horizons. We compare our findings to the predictions of traditional and newer theories of liquidity constraints, providing a novel interpretation for the aggregate effects of tax changes on the macroeconomy.