Learning the Wealth of Nations
研究市场导向政策在各国随时间演变的规律，发现自身和邻国历史经验通过影响决策者信念驱动政策选择，模型能解释二战后大部分政策变化，并预测若重现大萧条规模冲击将出现国家干预回潮。
We study the evolution of market-oriented policies over time and across countries. We consider a model in which own and neighbors' past experiences influence policy choices through their effect on policymakers' beliefs. We estimate the model using a large panel of countries and find that it fits a large fraction of the policy choices observed in the postwar data, including the slow adoption of liberal policies. Our model also predicts that there would be reversals to state intervention if nowadays the world was hit by a shock of the size of the Great Depression.