Consumption Smoothing after the Final Mortgage Payment: Testing the Magnitude Hypothesis
研究预期收入变化的幅度是否影响消费平滑，利用最终抵押贷款支付这一自然实验，通过事件研究法分析其对信用卡支出的因果效应，为幅度假说提供统计证据。
Abstract We examine whether the magnitude of an anticipated income change affects consumption smoothing (the magnitude hypothesis). Although this hypothesis has been discussed for fifty years, we are one of the first to provide formal statistical evidence to support it. We consider the natural experiment of an individual's final mortgage payment, an anticipated income change, and examine how it affects credit card expenditure. We can identify causality because the dates of final mortgage payments across individuals are uncorrelated with unobserved determinants of consumption. Using an event study methodology, we provide evidence to support the magnitude hypothesis.