What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?
利用消费者、企业、央行和职业预测者的调查数据，检验了信息刚性模型的预测，发现平均预测对冲击的反应不完全，且预测误差的动态与信息刚性模型一致。
A lot. We derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers, firms, central bankers, and professional forecasters. We document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks, leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information. The dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities. The conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities.