MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
开发了求解一般均衡模型的方法，其中前瞻性主体受悲观、乐观和不确定性浪潮影响，这些因素显著影响宏观经济结果。主体完全理性并进行贝叶斯学习，且知道自己无知，因此考虑信念会随观察而演化。用典型真实商业周期模型演示。
We develop methods to solve general equilibrium models in which forward‐looking agents are subject to waves of pessimism, optimism, and uncertainty that turn out to critically affect macroeconomic outcomes. Agents in the model are fully rational and conduct Bayesian learning, and they know that they do not know. Therefore, agents take into account that their beliefs will evolve according to what they will observe. This framework accommodates both gradual and abrupt changes in beliefs and allows for an analytical characterization of uncertainty. We use a prototypical Real Business Cycle model to illustrate the methods.