Product Development and Market Expansion: A Real Options Model
构建了一个实物期权模型，评估具有相关收益的互补品和替代品在顺序开发中的价值，发现相关性影响投资概率，而替代性降低项目价值并增加投资概率。
We create a model that values complementary and substitute products with potentially correlated revenues, which must be developed sequentially. The model also incorporates the effects of changing market conditions. We find that the value of a combined project increases in correlation, but the probability of investing in the initial product is a decreasing function of correlation. These results are reversed if the products are substitutes. Regardless of the correlation level, higher levels of substitutability reduce the value of the combined projects and increase the probability of investing. Despite greater uncertainty during the phase of limited competition, the firm is more likely to invest early than to postpone investment.