Tailwinds from the East: how has the rising share of imports from emerging markets affected import prices?
量化了1999至2011年间英国从新兴市场进口份额上升对进口价格通胀的影响，发现中国进口份额上升每年使英国进口价格通胀降低约0.5个百分点，其中三分之二来自直接转向低价中国商品，三分之一来自其他出口商因竞争降价。
This paper quantifies the effect of the rising share of imports from emerging market economies (EMEs) on import price inflation in the UK. Using a panel regression approach that accounts for heterogeneity across industries, we estimate that between 1999 and 2011, the rise in China’s import share of manufactured goods lowered UK import price inflation by around 0.5 percentage points per year—we call this the ‘tailwind’. Rising imports from other EME country groups are not found to have any significant impact. Our approach allows us to decompose this effect: two-thirds arises from the direct impact of switching to lower-cost Chinese goods; the remaining third comes from other exporters lowering their prices in response to stronger competition from China. We find no evidence that higher inflation rates in EMEs has so far reduced or reversed the sign of this tailwind.