Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08
比较2007-08年油价上涨与以往石油冲击的异同，发现此次由需求驱动而非供给中断，但对美国经济的影响类似，尤其是消费和汽车购买下降，若无此冲击，2007Q4-2008Q3可能不被视为衰退。
This paper explores similarities and differences between the run-up of oil prices in 2007–08 and earlier oil price shocks, looking at what caused these price increases and what effects they had on the economy. Whereas previous oil price shocks were primarily caused by physical disruptions of supply, the price run-up of 2007–08 was caused by strong demand confronting stagnating world production. Although the causes were different, the consequences for the economy appear to have been similar to those observed in earlier episodes, with significant effects on consumption spending and purchases of domestic automobiles in particular. Absent those declines, it is unlikely that the period 2007Q4–2008Q3 would have been characterized as one of recession for the United States. This episode should thus be added to the list of U.S. recessions to which oil prices appear to have made a material contribution.