Food imports, international prices, and violence in Africa
研究利用国际食品价格波动作为外部冲击，结合各国进口结构构建价格指数，发现1990-2011年间食品价格上涨与非洲暴力事件增加相关，但价格对暴力的预测能力较弱。
This study examines the effect of food price fluctuations on violence in Africa, using international food prices as a source of exogenous shock weighted by a country’s import pattern of major food commodities to create a country-specific food price index. The regression analysis shows that between 1990 and 2011, food price increases are associated with higher levels of violence. Moving from low to high values in the price index corresponds, after controlling for economic, social, and political factors, to an increase in violence intensity of 1.3 incidents. This effect is predominantly driven by imports of low-value-added primary products. Despite the statistically significant results, the predictive power of food prices is relatively low, both in and out of sample. Using 2012 data for out-of-sample forecast shows that food prices are a relatively poor predictor of violence.