Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market
提出股票市场过去二十年下跌的一个替代解释：资本投资风险显著增加，而非通常认为的通胀上升。通过分析企业资本实际边际回报的方差增大，说明这提高了持有股票的实际净回报的相对风险，从而解释了市场下跌的大部分原因。
ful discussions and comments. Most explanations for the decline in share values over the past two decades have focused on the concurrent increase in inflation. This paper considers an alternative explanation: a substantial in-crease in the riskiness of capital investments. We show that the variance of the firm's real marginal return on capital has increased significantly over the past two decades, that this has increased the relative riskiness of investors ' net real returns from holding stocks, and that this in turn can explain a large part of the market decline.