Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks
利用美国行业年度数据，检验生产率波动主要来自真实供给冲击还是需求冲击，发现要素价格函数与传统测量的生产率高度同步，且两者之差与总产出无关。
Measured productivity is strongly procyclical. Real business cycle theories suggest that actual fluctuations in productivity are the source of fluctuations in aggregate output. Keynesian theories maintain that fluctuations in aggregate output come from shocks to aggregate demand. Keynesian theories appeal to labor hoarding or off the production function behavior to explain the procyclicality of productivity. If observed productivity shocks are true productivity shocks, a function of factor prices should covary exactly with productivity. In annual data for United States industries, that function of factor prices and conventionally-measured productivity move together very closely. Moreover, their difference is uncorrelated with aggregate output.