A Dynamic Model of Housing Supply
构建了一个动态微观计量模型，研究旧金山湾区土地所有者如何根据未来价格和成本预期，选择建设时机和类型，发现成本变化和土地所有者择时行为降低了供给弹性。
This paper estimates a dynamic microeconometric model of housing supply. The model features forward-looking landowners who optimally choose both the timing and the nature of construction while taking into account expectations about future prices and costs. The model is estimated using a unique dataset describing individual landowners in the San Francisco Bay Area. Results indicate that geographic and time-series variation in costs are key to understanding where and when construction occurs. Pro-cyclical costs provide an incentive for some landowners to build before price peaks. Results also indicate that landowners actively “time” the market, which reduces the elasticity of supply.