The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom*
研究了人口结构变化是否导致过去十年股价上涨，以及婴儿潮一代在2010-2030年变现资产是否会导致“资产崩盘”，并分析了老龄化对国民储蓄的影响。
Abstract This paper addresses two issues. The first is whether demographic change was plausibly responsible for the run‐up in stock prices over the last decade, and whether an attempt by the baby boom cohort to cash out of its investments in the period 2010–2030 might lead to an “asset meltdown”. The second issue is whether the rise in dependency that will accompany the retirement of the baby‐boom cohort calls for an increase in national saving. We analyze these issues using a forward‐looking macro‐demographic model, and show that they are related via the existence of installation costs for capital. If such costs are sufficiently large, then demographics do have the power to affect stock prices, but “saving for America's old age” is less optimal. However, conventional estimates of capital installation costs are not large enough to explain large stock price movements in response to actual demographic change.