FERTILITY SHOCKS AND EQUILIBRIUM MARRIAGE‐RATE DYNAMICS
研究发现一战后法国女性结婚概率上升50%，主要源于单身男性池的构成改善，而非性别比例变化，说明性别比例作为女性婚姻前景的指标可能不可靠。
Abstract Female marriage probabilities were 50% higher in France in the years after World War 1, despite a large drop in the sex ratio. We develop a model of marital matching in which composition effects in the singles pool affect postdisruption matching rates. When calibrated to French data from World War 1, this mechanism explains 2/3 of the postwar rise in female marriage probabilities as the result of better composition of the pool of single men. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.